So its officially NCAA tourney Time and everybody is getting ready to fill out their brackets! every year I always finish in at least the top 2 in my pools. Granted last year I would've won it but VCU messed that up for me LOL! but that's in the past! But I'm very successful and here are the things I do to set up and have a potentially highly successful bracket. But always remember this is March Madness and anything can happen!
First lets start off with 3 basic key rules that I personally say you must follow when making your picks for your bracket.
1.) In the history of the NCAA tournament only once (2008) have all 4 #1 seeds made the Final Four. So what does that tell you never put all #1 seeds in your Final Four it never happens.
2.) Never pick the #16 seed over a #1seed its never happened in the history of the men's tournament and its only happened once in the women's tournament. Granted I truly believe that upset will happen one day but not this year.
3.) of the past 27 years of the NCAA tournament 25 times there has been at least on double-digit seed #10 or higher (preferably #10seed-#14seed) has made the sweet 16. So when filling out your bracket have at least one double digit seed in the round of 16.
NOW LETS GET STARTED WITH THE GOOD STUFF! PICKING UPSETS!
Upsets happen every year its what makes March Madness so crazy. The key to having a great tournament bracket is picking the right upsets. That's the difference between winning your pool and losing your pool! Here are some tips and things I look for when picking upsets.
1.) The first thing I look for is schools from bigger conferences that are what I call over-seeded. These are teams that I say get too much credit and the benefit of the doubt just because their a school from a bigger conference and aren't as good as they are seeded.
Teams I feel are over-seeded:
#3 Georgetown (they were a 5 seed in the Big East tourney and lost in the quarters their not as good as advertised)
#4 Louisville The Selection Committee had no choice in this seeding because Louisville won the way overrated Big East conference tourney this year but they were very mediocre for a good stretch this season they are over seeded!
#5 UNLV (Granted they beat UNC very early in the season but they finished 9-5 in the Mountain West #Over seeded big time)
#9 So. Miss (My dad may disown me for this one because this is his Alma mater LOL!) but the Golden Eagles are over-seeded!
The Second thing I look for is the exact opposite. These are teams that I feel are under seeded these are the teams that can make strong cases to pull off upsets in the 1st weekend:
#8 Memphis man this is a HUGE under seed I was shocked when I saw Memphis seeded that low. this is a serious team that dominated Conference USA and played a ton of tough non-conference games! they are even a threat to #1 Michigan St in their region. Look out for Memphis.
#7 Florida Granted the SEC was not as deep or talented this year as in years past but still a solid conference Florida just couldn't get past Kentucky who just happens to be the #1overall seed in the tourney! Florida is a better team than a #7
Now when getting down to it picking upsets has a lot to do with knowing basketball as well! you kind of haft to look at it from a coaches standpoint. in Basketball the best way to beat a team that has more talent than you is 1 key thing Execution. When teams make very few mistakes and execute flawlessly it cuts down on the huge gap of talent and makes it very difficult for Major schools to beat mid majors! (I always use the example of last years VCU PG Joey Rodriguez in the 5 games to the final four he had 45assists to only 5 turnovers) So the key thing to look for in Mid Major match ups are teams that have low turnovers, great guard play, and play great defense.
Mid Majors that fit this criteria:
1.) Murray State (they are a 6 seed but still a mid major)
2.) Long Beach St (LBSU)
3.) Belmont
4.) Ohio
if your going to pick upsets I would suggest to start looking with those 4 teams there
Now here are my upset picks. Now nothing is a 100% guarantee but these are the ones I think have the most potential to happen!
#11 Colorado over #4 UNLV
#8 Memphis over #1 Michigan St. in round of 32
#12 Long Beach St. over #5 New Mexico St./ #12 Long Beach St. over #4 Louisville
(This follows into what I was talking about earlier with rule #3 double digit seed in sweet 16 I think LBSU will be that team and I have Louisville as one of my over seeded teams)
#10 Ohio over #7 Michigan
#14 Belmont over #3 Georgetown
(This is my risk taking upset I think Belmont's fast paced guard play can cause Georgetown issues and Georgetown has always laid huge eggs in big games)
Now I'm not going to give away my entire tournament bracket but I was going to give out a few tips and knowledge on setting up your bracket! So I hope everybody thinks my blog is very helpful and good luck to everybody filling out their brackets!
Lastly always remember this is March Madness anything can happen!
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